Canada Federal Election 2025 - Seat Projections, April 12th
The following are the projected 2025 Canadian federal election results (seat counts) for all major parties, as of the date of publication.
Yesterday's projections are available here.
Summary
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Bloc Québécois | Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 189 | 136 | 11 | 6 | 1 |
| [170 - 215] | [120 - 159] | [0 - 90] | [1 - 26] | [1 - 1] |
Seat Distribution
Election Probabilities
65%
Probability of the Liberals winning a majority.32%
Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority.1%
Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority.2%
Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority.
Note: Percentages are rounded and may not add up to 100%.
Past Seat Projections
Detailed Results
Methodology
These results are obtained by using the monte carlo method to sample a linear regression model of Popular Vote versus Elected Candidate Percentage, fitted to each party based on election results going back to the 1993 federal election. Current popular vote is estimated based on a weighted sample of publicly available polling, sourced from the CBC Poll Tracker.
1,000,000 samples are taken and then aggregated to produce the results on this page.